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08 October, 2018

Elections: Projected Corporate Winners & Losers in the 2018 Midterm Elections

The Takeaway:

We put 70% odds that Democrats will win majority control of the House and only 15% odds they win control of the Senate in the 2018 midterm elections, meaning our most likely scenario is a Democratic-controlled House and Republican-controlled Senate. Our

2 scenario has Republicans maintaining majorities in both chambers, and our least likely

scenario is a Democratic sweep in November. In this report, we delve into how the various election outcomes will create winners and losers across the following coverage areas: Trade; Energy & Utilities; Financial Services & Housing; Healthcare; Transportation & Infrastructure; Marijuana; Technology, Media, & Telecommunications; and Tobacco. Under our most likely election outcome, where Democrats control the House and Republicans control the Senate, we see Congress implementing policies or at least creating headlines that benefit a basket of winners across all coverage areas, including NRG Energy (NRG), Southern Co. (SO), Fannie Mae (FNMA), Centene (CNC), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Netflix (NFLX), and Altria (MO). Additionally, we think the marijuana industry stands to benefit most from this election outcome compared to the other two scenarios. Under this most likely outcome, we also see Congress implementing policies or creating headlines that harm a basket of election losers, including Bunge (BG), Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Enova International (ENVA), Pfizer (PFE), Casey's General Stores (CASY), Facebook (FB), and JUUL Labs.