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12 June, 2017

Senate & House Remain on Track to Complete ACA Repeal by August Recess

The Takeaway:

Press over the past week is illustrative of the volatile nature of the AHCA negotiations: on the one hand, many reports indicate that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) _[expects]( his chamber to complete work on the AHCA prior to the July 4 recess; on the other hand, articles late last week [cast doubt]( over whether any conservatives will be willing to vote for a more moderated version of ACA reform that’s likely to move through the Senate, dooming the legislation to fail. In the end, we think neither of these scenarios is likely. Rather, we think final resolution is possible, but most likely not until mid- to late- July. Between now and then, we expect it will appear at times like the AHCA could fail entirely. Nevertheless, we still to believe it is likely – we put odds at 70% – that both chambers of Congress complete their work on ACA repeal by the August recess._