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08 February, 2019

Trade: Don't Call Me, I'll Call You- Trump Delays Xi Meeting

President Trump's announcement that he will, as of now, not meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping supports our thesis that a comprehensive deal will not be reached by the March 1st deadline, but that a continuation of the tariff pause is likely. That Trump canceled the meeting without directly blaming the Chinese leads us to expect that this is not a negotiating tactic, but is rather a delay to allow a Trump-Xi meeting to coincide with an actual deal, rather than the empty promises resulting from previous Trump-led summits. That this delay was driven by process, rather than bluster, leads us to expect that the current tariff pause will be extended to allow negotiations to continue. We still see talks taking a more positive trend than at any point previously, and see a good chance for a deal coming together.